11-0-2018
BoomTownBlues

The Long View Charts

Chart data is from the St. Louis Fed API, Bureau of Economic Research and the US Census Bureau


Sentiment has been on a tear since the nadir in 2010. I dare say, that is just about when the market started to form the basis of the rally that we are enjoying today. Coincidence?


The 10 Year to 2 Year Treasury spread has come down recently. Definitely something to keep an eye on, but, as a market technician recently noted, low is ok, it doesnt really matter until it goes negative (recession indicator)


The TED spread is a indicator of stresses in the financial sector, essentially comparing short-term US rates (3 month) with short-term LIBOR. As evidenced by the chart, the spread tends to rise during volatility bouts.


Labor Participation rates had been declining in recent years (post 2005), but, recently they have begun to rise again, as higher wages, lower unemployment and a better economy rally people off the bench


Commerical and Industrial loans had been growting at a rapid clip, but, have leveled off lately, creating some drag for banks who are fighting the enormous mountain of private money out there


Well, well. Hello Darkness my old friend. The CPI is used to measure inflation on everything from energy costs, to clothing. As one can tell, its been on a pretty steady uptrend for a long time, any change in that, would be significant.


High Yield has been doing well, even in the face of rising rates and an extended economic cycle. Corporate defaults have been very low lately, but, if they rise - Look Out Above!


This chart just shows that National Income, as measured by the BEA, has been on a long long upward trajectory. Any change in this indicator, would be significant. Data is only available through 2016.